FAIL! Revisited - IPO Class of 2011-12 mini reunion

Way, way back on June 1 of this year I took a look at some of the high profile tech IPOs of 2011 and 2012 and I offered up a pretty dour view of the immediate future for these hype great investments.   So, two months later, I'm going to have a quick Class Reunion and see how all the IPO graduates have faired....

Presented in the same order, with updated stock charts....

1. Zynga, My Favorite Game!

Look out below!

Here's what I said 6/1:  Opened at 11, a real Christmas gift!  Woops, touching 6 now... don't bother bottom fishing until around 4.  Isn't StockVille such a neat game to play?!

Bottom fishers, you now have a yellow caution light to proceed depending on your level of self-loathing.


2. Get Your Daily Deal - Rotten Fish on GroupOff!

Back on 6/1 GRPN was trading a bit under 10. I said wait for 5.  We are getting there....

3. HELP! I've been YELP'd!

Back on 6/1 YELP was looking at 16 after opening at 22.  Nice levitation since then, but too early to get giddy about upside.  Needs more time wallowing at lower levels.  

4. FaceJuke!  The Mother of all Bogus IPOs!  Long Live the Zuck!

FB touched $45 on opening day. On 6/1 I said way to early to even seriously watch it.  Mr. Market seems to agree.  Let's see if the fall offrom disgrace can stop at $16.  

And finally, the winner.... the CHAMPION!!!!

5. LNKD -  like my 81 year old pops-in-law says, "I'm on the "LINKIN" (no it doesn't do anything for him).  Hotrod Lincoln?  Or a Ford with a fake badge?

On 6/1 I said watch out because LNKD could be "the first commercially viable social network, OMG!!!"  It was actually UP over it's opening day.  I said it was "in the pool of indecision" and it's still there, hovering around its opening price.  I still think it needs to spend some time underwater but LNKD remains the champ in this IPO group... it has legitimate earnings prospects. 

The next few months could be pretty unkind to this whole group.  The low-volume manipulated rising market is very very tired and everyone seems to be focused on Central Bank moves rather than profits and prospects for more.  Main Street is tired too.  The economy is just not in great shape, it's getting harder to fake with government statistics.   This IPO class has its work cut out for it.  At least they have big cash cushions to weather economic storms and headwinds.   I think they're going to need it.

Your Faithful Curmudgeon

The New Criminal Elite

When we think of crime, be honest, we flash on a random act of malice or violence that deprives an innocent victim of something... like a mugging, a smash-and-grab, or passing a bad check.  I think we are totally off-base thinking like that.  While surely crimes, the wrongful acts perpetrated by desperate societal bottom-enders, outcasts and thugs mostly pale in comparison to the crimes of their biggers and betters.

Crime pays and pays big if you are a big enough fish to begin with.  So there is motive enough.  And there is infrastructure aplenty.  Career politicianhood and powerful large business and union interests have a game table that is beautifully set for all manners of turpitude.  Government grafts and in return harasses, maims or kills those who would be obstacles to unlimited enrichment of their commercial cronies.

At the highest levels, we are treated to extortive ultimatums from the Hank Paulsons and Jerry Browns of the world - GIVE ME (MORE OF) YOUR MONEY NOW OR ELSE!!!  Or else what?  The corrupt power structure might suffer a setback or even, perish the thought, a humpty-dumpty fall?  I for one am tired of our so-called leaders and exemplars sticking us up and shaking us down.    More taxes?  Clean up your own house first and then maybe we'll talk.  Bankster bailouts - why do they deserve many-zero bonuses for taking guaranteed debt arbitrage trades from the Fed and Treasury?

I have had serious reservations about gun ownership for most of my life.  My opinion is changing.  I no longer vest much trust in institutions.  In cities like San Francisco, there is annoying and sometimes life threatening crime all around; it will never go on the endangered species list.  Police response is muted at best.  Why not?  None of the swelling ranks of six-figure plus pensionistas answer calls.  Government economics wizards have been robbing savers of their savings via ZIRP and a depreciating dollar for years now with no end in sight.  And now we are treated to Armed Forces "training exercises" on city streets... Got Guns?

FAIL! Tech IPO Class of 2011-2012. Who Farted?

FailBook, or FacePlant, or whatever you want to call it, is NOT the biggest loser in the awful crop of Tech IPOs 2011-2012.

Let's face it, the investment bankers saw the approaching implosion of financial markets as we know them, and put as much perfume on these pigs as has ever been done to arrange a marriage with retail investors, er, ignorant punters.

Let us just look at a few stock charts, shall we?  We'll save the WINNER for last because it's good to finish on an up-note, right?

1. Zynga, My Favorite Game!

Opened at 11, a real Christmas gift!  Woops, touching 6 now... don't bother bottom fishing until around 4.  Isn't StockVille such a neat game to play?!


2. Get Your Daily Deal - Rotten Fish on GroupOff!

GRPN, the ULTIMATE BUSINESS MODEL!  Take an old concept, coupons, with no barrier to entry, and PISS OFF your RETAIL accounts while JADING your end-users!  It's a sure-fire success!  Oh, forgot to note the funny business in accounting... go Chicago!  That tactic is always a great secret sauce for a BIG IPO!  Opened at 28, now under 10.  Makes Facebook look like such a Champ!!  I know that special on Falling Knives is calling your name, but wait for the next 50% off deal on GRPN,  it might go nearly to 5.   If the company survives, it might actually make you some money, then!

3. HELP! I've been YELP'd!

I LIKE Yelp.  It's actually a fun, worthwhile and potentially valuable community.  I participate gladly.  But, I didn't go near the IPO.  Yelp still has to figure out how to make large $$ off of its assets.  Sadly they do not seem to want grey-haired tech exec advice, they would rather whoop it up with a virtual pool party, taking a dive on NASDAQ.  Guys and Gals - I'm still available :-) ... and I'll keep you laughing!

Opened at 22 (gee, their underwriters must have had an unusual fit of modesty!) now probing 16 with a lot of room to range down.  If it can't hold 15-16, maybe 10?  This is not such a bad IPO story.  MOST tech IPOs are underwater six months after opening.  Yelp may make it.  I hope they do.  But the stock just gets a 1-star review right now, I won't buy any until it's quite a bit lower, and then maybe it'll rate up to 3-stars. 

4. FaceJuke!  The Mother of all Bogus IPOs!  Long Live the Zuck!

Oh those bad, bad underwriters.  Hell, they just got caught doing what every tech IPO underwriter has done for decades.  Stop your whining, dice-throwers!  FaceBook is the most talked about boring thing in my lifetime.  Yes, it can be useful and I suppose sometimes even heartwarming.  And advertisers will be sure to pay exorbitant rates to get at really meaty micro-targeted behavior- and location-based goodness.  

Never mind FB is a tool of the state police.  If Google can do it, why not the Book?  But I digress.  Opened at a much ballyhooed $28 so that the mezzanine private equity investors of a year ago could get their guaranteed double, and F to YouGuys who buy the stock retail!   Mwah hah hah!!!    This pig has a long way to go to the find bottom of the PigSty.  Too early to even seriously watch it, unless you like being zucked from behind.

And finally, the winner.... the CHAMPION!!!!

5. LNKD -  like my 81 year old pops-in-law says, "I'm on the "LINKIN" (no it doesn't do anything for him).  Hotrod Lincoln?  Or a Ford with a fake badge?

Look carefully at this... yes, it's true, LNKD is actually UP over it's opening price!  Maybe because its community is LOYAL and a good % actually PAY to use it?  Plus advertising?  Watch out, this could be a real business model.  It might be the first commercially viable social network, OMG!!!

Don't get too excited just yet.  The market can't make up its mind how much LNKD is worth.  It will go down, maybe a bunch, before it goes up again.  But at least it's in the pool of indecision instead of the drowning pool with its IPO classmates!

Moral to the story: Do not FOLLOW the smart money. If you can't ride with them, wait til they kill the innocent in their wake...  if you are patient, you might be able to get some GRPN-sized opportunities.  Happy crumb-hunting!

Your Faithful Curmudgeon

Global Financial Dam Cracks Widen - Get a Life Preserver

You don't get to appreciate the (for now) slow-motion trainwreck that is the global banking system unless you spend time off the mainstream media path.  Those happy spinsters would have us believe that everything is fine and our recovery, while laborious, is progressing to a happy conclusion.

Bullshit.

The global debt-based economy is disintegrating, and due soon for a long miserable reset.  In Game of Thrones, the Starks' motto is "Winter is Coming."  Well said, sers.  Mr. George R. R. Martin may be a gifted prophet as well as a stellar story teller.

Europe as it is currently ill-conceived is finished.  Britain and Japan are past their eyeballs in government debt.  China sits on a huge stack of rapidly depreciating dollar-based assets, cities packed with empty office skyscrapers and four-star hotels, on top of an empire full of factories spewing out grot for.... whom?  Guess what, Uncle Sam and his cronies and especially us pissants will not be immune to the coming wave of sovereign defaults and the consequent destruction of HUNDREDS of TRILLION$ in DERIVATIVES.

It ain't pretty my friends.  Rather than go on in full rant, I suggest you take a look at a presentation by one of the world's elite financial minds and practitioners, Mr. Raoul Pal.  His life success is based on cold, objective evaluation of trends in the context of well-studied history.  He is not a gloom-and-doomer; he's not trying to sell salvation. He would like to survive and prosper.  And he has a message for us: get prepared NOW for some serious shit.  Without further ado, Mr. Pal's "Stark" presentation:

Global Financial End Game 2012-2013 - Raoul Pal

Cherry Blossoms in San Francisco

I needed a break from lamenting the quotidian affairs of monkeys, er, humans.  The Cherry Blossoms in San Francisco have been especially beautiful this year.  Their time is one of those magic passages.  This little soundbyte came to me thinking about them.  Close your eyes and hope you enjoy the blossoms.

Voting in 2012 is Like Licking a Toilet Clean

Both candidates are owned by the global crime syndicate otherwise known as central and money center banks. These guaranteed nominations of the Grublicans and the Dumbocrats have the banksters high-fiving with assured victory in their conquest of the nation that was formerly known as the constitutional republic of the United States of America.  Uncle Sam, it was nice knowin' ya.

It doesn't matter which of these heinous puppets wins... so at least let's have an exciting third-party or independent candidacy to remind us there can be alternatives to debt slavery and a global race to the bottom.

Protestors Beat Up on 99%; Police Can't Even Help Themselves

Today's SF Chronicle features a sad story of a crumbling civil society - http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/05/01/BAQF1OBH55.DTL&tsp=1.

Last night, masked shitheads marched down Valencia Street, one of San Francisco's hard-working local biz spots, breaking windows and throwing paint on stores and parked vehicles.  They even broke windows on the Mission Police Station.  One, count 'em,  ONE... individual was arrested... and released.

WTF SFPD?   Now I don't expect the paper tiger that is SFPD (what do you expect a bunch of pensioners to do anyway, the biggest cost in SFPD's budget?) will suddenly become some knight in shining armor.  But come on, can't protect your own building?

As to the protestors, these bumfucks might want to consider watching themselves; forget the Police.  Polite  citizens are becoming more impolite with each attack on decency and the hardworking.  The anarchist numbnutzes aren't making any impact on the 1% we hear so much about.  This sorry episode, like the Occupy Farce preceding it, disrupts the lives and livelihoods of working folk.  Between gangs, the shiftless, the unmannered drunk/high, the City already has too much scum on its plate.  The situation is becoming ripe for a vigilante backlash.  The script has already been written in other countries with torn social fabric.   Sad to see it coming, but when people get fed up...