The Super Bowl, that annual annointing of "world champions" is a fascinating microscopic take on what's up with the USA. It reminded me of the quote "it was the best of times, it was the worst of times."
Green Bay gets huge high-fives for character and keeping the American Underdog Dream fully alive and well. I'm thinking San Francisco and Green Bay should become sister cities - let's call them Champions of the Improbable! Having a Cal alum at the victorious helm didn't hurt the sentimental value one bit, either. Aaron Rodgers deserves the credit he got for poise and perseverance despite setbacks larger and smaller.
Now, on the flip side... I luckily missed the butchering of the national hamthem but given what I saw in the halftime extra//g-nzA all is not well in wonderland. With all the money thrown at that production, it was amazing to see mixing board screwups - woah - who is singing now?! and the hopefully-non-freudian lighting system fubar with LO 'E. Yep, all you need is LO 'E. The LED body lighting on the field dancers was pretty cool, but having a major chunk of stage lighting OFFd for the event was pretty poor. No doubt someone has been blamed and executed but that was a team failure. Kind of like the team failure we're experiencing at the hands of the banksters and their feddie buddies QB'd by ChairSatan (hat tip to Bill Gross) Genocide Ben Bernanke.
If Heads is the Packers and Tails is the Halftime Show, the COIN ITSELF has to go to Apple, with their "Two is Better than One" iPhone megabrag. Yep, what could be better than having all the long-suffering AT&T i-victims have to go buy a new iPhone for the incompatible Verizon network. Slick. How many of those AT&T phones are going to be popping up on Craigslist and Ebay soon?
The Peas are still clinging to Hope and Change You Can Believe In. I think I'll stick with the Underdog Dream.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Have We Missed the Start of World War III?
Possibly.
Economic (Federal Reserve) policy in the USA is getting tagged, not entirely unfairly, for food riots in developing countries.
Iran's nuclear program has reportedly been set back years. Not by a military operation, but a computer virus.
The most strategic "choke points" in the developed world are no longer ports, bridges, roads and factories but financial and energy distribution systems, which in turn rely on the global information network.
The global debt bubble has already caused one country (Iceland) to go bankrupt. More will follow despite the increasingly desperate and disingenuous tactics to pay old debt with greater sums of new debt. The Swiss are being punished for prudence, with the value of the Swiss Franc skyrocketing as the rest of the developed world, led by the USA, tries to debase its currencies to "stay competitive". This race to the bottom can lead to an 'everyman for himself' chaos. Nations and peoples may well find themselves "owned" by others in return for "bailouts".... no shots fired.
Why drop bombs and fire guns if you can disrupt or take control of information networks and the complex systems, especially financial, riding on top of them? Both nation states and rogue actors could plausibly do so.
Consider the possibility that World War III will be entirely different from the conflicts that preceded it. The primary arenas of conflict could well be economics-based and information-control based. Military action may become a secondary arena, more for consolidation of control than assault. Consider that alliances may shift throughout the conflict, unlike the rigid state-based alliances of the past. Indeed, chaos and uncertainty may be signature calling cards of a lengthy conflict.
All biological systems adapt. War has proven to be adaptible throughout human history. No war has been exactly the same as it's predecessor. Enough has changed in the fabric of life since WW II that we should not be surprised to wake up to a very different kind of war. Stay awake, my friends.
Economic (Federal Reserve) policy in the USA is getting tagged, not entirely unfairly, for food riots in developing countries.
Iran's nuclear program has reportedly been set back years. Not by a military operation, but a computer virus.
The most strategic "choke points" in the developed world are no longer ports, bridges, roads and factories but financial and energy distribution systems, which in turn rely on the global information network.
The global debt bubble has already caused one country (Iceland) to go bankrupt. More will follow despite the increasingly desperate and disingenuous tactics to pay old debt with greater sums of new debt. The Swiss are being punished for prudence, with the value of the Swiss Franc skyrocketing as the rest of the developed world, led by the USA, tries to debase its currencies to "stay competitive". This race to the bottom can lead to an 'everyman for himself' chaos. Nations and peoples may well find themselves "owned" by others in return for "bailouts".... no shots fired.
Why drop bombs and fire guns if you can disrupt or take control of information networks and the complex systems, especially financial, riding on top of them? Both nation states and rogue actors could plausibly do so.
Consider the possibility that World War III will be entirely different from the conflicts that preceded it. The primary arenas of conflict could well be economics-based and information-control based. Military action may become a secondary arena, more for consolidation of control than assault. Consider that alliances may shift throughout the conflict, unlike the rigid state-based alliances of the past. Indeed, chaos and uncertainty may be signature calling cards of a lengthy conflict.
All biological systems adapt. War has proven to be adaptible throughout human history. No war has been exactly the same as it's predecessor. Enough has changed in the fabric of life since WW II that we should not be surprised to wake up to a very different kind of war. Stay awake, my friends.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
California Inmates, Your New Facility Awaits!
First, kudos to Jerry Brown who is making good steps whittling at California's monstrous budget problem. He's building political support on relatively "easy" moves like taking away cellphones and car perks from state employees and making pretty courageous moves on very unpopular fronts like reducing education spending and social benefits. Just as only a Republican could "open up" communist China (Nixon, 70's) only a Democrat can deal with predominantly democrat California politics to reduce budget deficit. Jerry Brown gets a lot of undeserved trashing by people who turn a blind eye to his rare combination of high integrity, intellectual honesty, and razor sharp political instincts. These tough times may be Jerry's finest hour, and silence the static from the peanut gallery.
The California budget circus, goat-rope, whatever you want to call it, is going to get a whole lot nastier when Jerry tries to cut spending in the most sacred-cow temple, the prison system. Being a California prison guard has been one of the few guaranteed tickets to millionaire-land with early retirement, not a bad outcome for (California) High School diplomas. Arnold Schwarzenneger got bushwhacked when he tried to get support for moving a relatively small bunch of criminals who are Mexican nationals, here illegally, to custody in.... Mexico. The savings would have been substantial. Prison Guard revolt, game over.
As we keep sending empty freighters back to China, and China keeps building more empty buildings to prop up their real estate bubble, I can't help thinking of the great win-win it would be to outsource the Great California Prison Industry to China, in a big way... forget Walls, how about the Great Halls (for social redevelopment) of China. Prison jobs will never help rebuild the economy. Just imagine what it would be like if we moved some of those taxpayer-burden jobs together with a many metric tons of inmates offshore, and brought back some manufacturing jobs?
In case you are worried about the possibility for cruel and unusual punishment by domiciling inmates in China, check out Bloomberg TV's video update on one possible facility... the world-famous (and famously empty) South China Mall!
The South China Mall, Still Empty after All These Years: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/65822094/
The New "Carry Trade" -- Prisoners to China!
The California budget circus, goat-rope, whatever you want to call it, is going to get a whole lot nastier when Jerry tries to cut spending in the most sacred-cow temple, the prison system. Being a California prison guard has been one of the few guaranteed tickets to millionaire-land with early retirement, not a bad outcome for (California) High School diplomas. Arnold Schwarzenneger got bushwhacked when he tried to get support for moving a relatively small bunch of criminals who are Mexican nationals, here illegally, to custody in.... Mexico. The savings would have been substantial. Prison Guard revolt, game over.
As we keep sending empty freighters back to China, and China keeps building more empty buildings to prop up their real estate bubble, I can't help thinking of the great win-win it would be to outsource the Great California Prison Industry to China, in a big way... forget Walls, how about the Great Halls (for social redevelopment) of China. Prison jobs will never help rebuild the economy. Just imagine what it would be like if we moved some of those taxpayer-burden jobs together with a many metric tons of inmates offshore, and brought back some manufacturing jobs?
In case you are worried about the possibility for cruel and unusual punishment by domiciling inmates in China, check out Bloomberg TV's video update on one possible facility... the world-famous (and famously empty) South China Mall!
The South China Mall, Still Empty after All These Years: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/65822094/
The New "Carry Trade" -- Prisoners to China!
Friday, January 7, 2011
If We're Recovering, Why the Record Use of Food Stamps?
What kind of situation do you have to be in to qualify for SNAP (food stamps)?
The household must have $5,000 or less in countable liquid assets combined with excess vehicle value. This includes cash, checking and savings accounts, stocks, and bonds. It does not include non-liquid assets such as land, minerals, and livestock. Prepaid burial insurance or funeral plans with a cash value exceeding $7,500 must be counted as a liquid asset.
Oh, SNAP, indeed. I guess the suggestion by one wag that people are taking their food-budget savings and plowing them into tech flyers like AAPL sadly falls into the "there is no Santa" file.
In the Great Depression (soon to be called the Second Greatest Depression), we didn't have SNAP, we had soup lines. It's so much easier to sweep our trouble under the rug when we can keep it off the street, no?
In other developments, Portugal is going to the PRIVATE MARKET to float bonds, because it really can't practically do it in public any more. Rumor is China will step up to buy these fine investment-grade vehicles. Well, when you have Ron Paul categorically promenading the Emperor's Clothes - THE USA IS BROKE AND CAN'T PAY IT'S BILLS - I guess risk diversification to Portugal isn't so crazy.
Just another day in Wonderland.
Monday, January 3, 2011
New Tech Stock Bubble?
Goldman Sachs' $450MM investment in Facebook says that big money would like to see another tech bubble. With a $50B market valuation, Facebook may have to work for quite awhile to approach any kind of "fair" valuation. But no matter. The economics here are simple: GS puts in some chump change today, and in a year or less, flips that investment to the starry-eyed for a double or better, plus cleans up on the fees for the IPO. And, if it works, the floodgates are open for a number of smaller follow-on deals. There are a number of promising candidates for "valuation insanity" in the social media and web 2.0 arenas.
Timing of this is fairly urgent. What other candidate schemes are there that could create this kind of money fountain? Not too many. Strong tech stocks like SalesForce.com already are showing signs of being a bit "bubbly" --> http://qr.ae/tIei so the time to move is NOW. Watch for more announcements like this soon, and for plenty of hoo-hah about coming "blockbuster IPOs".
Talk about history compression. Have people already forgotten the last tech bubble and bust? Not even ten years have passed since all manner of tech story companies were rushed to the public market, enriching the early investors and decimating the portfolios of many enthusiastic IPO buyers. The NASDAQ stock market has had quite a run since March 2009. Many may be tempted to think that it's safe to go back in the water. And the big-money players will be working overtime seducing you. Just sayin'.
Timing of this is fairly urgent. What other candidate schemes are there that could create this kind of money fountain? Not too many. Strong tech stocks like SalesForce.com already are showing signs of being a bit "bubbly" --> http://qr.ae/tIei so the time to move is NOW. Watch for more announcements like this soon, and for plenty of hoo-hah about coming "blockbuster IPOs".
Talk about history compression. Have people already forgotten the last tech bubble and bust? Not even ten years have passed since all manner of tech story companies were rushed to the public market, enriching the early investors and decimating the portfolios of many enthusiastic IPO buyers. The NASDAQ stock market has had quite a run since March 2009. Many may be tempted to think that it's safe to go back in the water. And the big-money players will be working overtime seducing you. Just sayin'.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Innovate Not Fade Away
The pace of innovation in technology continues at a hot pace all over the globe. In contrast, innovation in practices, procedures, policies, laws, governance and statecraft is lagging behind badly in the USA. Perhaps corollary, we've seen significant "innovation" in lawlessness and bullying by too-big-to-fail entities with complicity by government.
Innovation is another way of saying adaptation. Our continued life and prosperity depend on it.
A brilliant business mentor offered this powerful observation:
RELATIVE INNOVATION is what matters. As in evolution, rapid adaptation is a powerful success strategy. Successful organizations innovate their products and services faster than their competitors. A good way to measure this is with a "generation chart" that shows how much revenue/income comes from products and services that are a) less than a year old, b) one to two years old, c) two to three years old, and d) more than three years old. After you make up one for your organization, make up one as best you can estimate for your competitors. This can be quite powerful!
The root source of relative innovation is the rate at which you innovate your key assumptions, policies, procedures and practices. If you don't innovate the HOW of your activity at a competitive rate, the WHAT (products, services) will surely suffer. A good New Years' Resolution: Take stock of your innovation profile. Examine the core assumptions you rely on that shape your beliefs and actions. Review your key practices and policies. Plan to improve any of them that have been gathering dust. Do the generation chart exercise and get those products and services moving forward!
Just imagine the power and potential of a large network committed to innovation!
Innovation is another way of saying adaptation. Our continued life and prosperity depend on it.
A brilliant business mentor offered this powerful observation:
RELATIVE INNOVATION is what matters. As in evolution, rapid adaptation is a powerful success strategy. Successful organizations innovate their products and services faster than their competitors. A good way to measure this is with a "generation chart" that shows how much revenue/income comes from products and services that are a) less than a year old, b) one to two years old, c) two to three years old, and d) more than three years old. After you make up one for your organization, make up one as best you can estimate for your competitors. This can be quite powerful!
The root source of relative innovation is the rate at which you innovate your key assumptions, policies, procedures and practices. If you don't innovate the HOW of your activity at a competitive rate, the WHAT (products, services) will surely suffer. A good New Years' Resolution: Take stock of your innovation profile. Examine the core assumptions you rely on that shape your beliefs and actions. Review your key practices and policies. Plan to improve any of them that have been gathering dust. Do the generation chart exercise and get those products and services moving forward!
Just imagine the power and potential of a large network committed to innovation!
Thursday, December 30, 2010
What Recommendations Have You Given and Received Recently?
All of us give recommendations and referrals. Who/what have you recommended or referred within the last month? Referral is such an essential, automatic part of being human that we do it almost unconsciously. I've moved recently, so maybe my referral activity level both in and out is elevated. But stopping to think about it, it almost traces my life. Here are some (I can't remember all) of the referrals I've given and received in just the past month!
places to enjoy live music
off-leash dog park
dim sum
burritos
movies
books
bookstore
auto glass
bakery
dentist
gardening services
moving services
lighting store
land use attorney
land use expediter
architect/designer
historical preservation consultant
home security installer and monitoring service
What about you? How much of your economic activity is significantly influenced by this automatic referral network we all live in? I bet it's surprising when you think how much.
New Years' Resolution: Give and Receive more recommentations and referrals!
places to enjoy live music
off-leash dog park
dim sum
burritos
movies
books
bookstore
auto glass
bakery
dentist
gardening services
moving services
lighting store
land use attorney
land use expediter
architect/designer
historical preservation consultant
home security installer and monitoring service
What about you? How much of your economic activity is significantly influenced by this automatic referral network we all live in? I bet it's surprising when you think how much.
New Years' Resolution: Give and Receive more recommentations and referrals!
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