Innovate Not Fade Away

The pace of innovation in technology continues at a hot pace all over the globe.  In contrast, innovation in practices, procedures, policies, laws, governance and statecraft is lagging behind badly in the USA.  Perhaps corollary, we've seen significant "innovation" in lawlessness and bullying by too-big-to-fail entities with complicity by government.

Innovation is another way of saying adaptation.  Our continued life and prosperity depend on it.

A brilliant business mentor offered this powerful observation:

RELATIVE INNOVATION is what matters.  As in evolution, rapid adaptation is a powerful success strategy.  Successful organizations innovate their products and services faster than their competitors.  A good way to measure this is with a "generation chart" that shows how much revenue/income comes from products and services that are a) less than a year old, b) one to two years old, c) two to three years old, and d) more than three years old.  After you make up one for your organization, make up one as best you can estimate for your competitors.  This can be quite powerful!

The root source of relative innovation is the rate at which you innovate your key assumptions, policies, procedures and practices.  If you don't innovate the HOW of your activity at a competitive rate, the WHAT (products, services) will surely suffer.  A good New Years' Resolution:  Take stock of your innovation profile.  Examine the core assumptions you rely on that shape your beliefs and actions.  Review your key practices and policies.  Plan to improve any of them that have been gathering dust.   Do the generation chart exercise and get those products and services moving forward!

Just imagine the power and potential of a large network committed to innovation!

What Recommendations Have You Given and Received Recently?

All of us give recommendations and referrals.  Who/what have you recommended or referred within the last month?  Referral is such an essential, automatic part of being human that we do it almost unconsciously.  I've moved recently, so maybe my referral activity level both  in and out is elevated.  But stopping to think about it, it almost traces my life.  Here are some (I can't remember all) of the referrals I've given and received in just the past month!

places to enjoy live music
off-leash dog park
dim sum
burritos
movies
books
bookstore
auto glass
bakery
dentist
gardening services
moving services
lighting store
land use attorney
land use expediter
architect/designer
historical preservation consultant
home security installer and monitoring service

What about you?  How much of your economic activity is significantly influenced by this automatic referral network we all live in?  I bet it's surprising when you think how much.

New Years' Resolution:  Give and Receive more recommentations and referrals!

Private Property Rights are Expensive in California

The story here  http://allenakin.com/405lincoln.html  will really sadden or anger you if you hold private property rights dear.

California's 1970 landmark legislation affectionately known as CEQA ("see-quah") was a backlash by citizens against brazen land-grabs and redevelopments that completely changed the quality of their surrounding areas.  Growing up in quiet La Jolla, California, I remember the hue and cry, and outrage, when two 'modern' high-rise apartment buildings (widely held to be nothing more than giant, ugly, boxlike concretions) shot up out of the ground in the 1960s, creating permanent skyline change and ruining the expensive views of their neighbors.  OK, if your development is in effect a re-zoning (e.g. low density to high density, residential to commercial, etc.), it's understandable that you may impact the Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness of others, sometimes many others.  Bring on the EIR(s).  Bring on CEQA...

But what about homeowners rights to the "quiet enjoyment" of their property?  Homeowners were supposed to have an automatic exemption from CEQA and the tedious, expensive EIR process for building or rebuilding a single family residence with any attendant outbuildings.  Unless the home is more than 50 years old.... if it is deemed a historic resource, then making changes can become tortuous.   The story linked here is of a Palo Alto couple that bought a house with the upfront understanding from the City that they'd be able to demolish and rebuild it to meet their needs.  What ensued was a change of mind by the City, and three+ years of torture that cost the couple more the $500,000 in legal, architectural, consulting and other fees.  Just recently, the Palo Alto City Council voted 8-1 to override the City's "Historical Preservation" department and permit demolition and rebuilding.

When is too far too far?  Why has common sense disappeared in cases like this?  CEQA is a vague set of guidelines, administered by multiple government groups with different agendas.  Private property rights are being trampled in the name of historic preservation.  I'm not a big fan of California's Proposition politics, but fixing CEQA might just be a worthwhile application.

A Great Article on Social Media and Selling by Joanne Black - please vote for it!

Joanne Black is a fantastic advocate for the power of personal relationships and referral based selling.  She's written a short, right-to-the point article here Joanne Black's Social Media & Sales Article... you'll see her smiling face top row, second from left.  Click on the thumbnail text and click on the yellow stars - worth 5, right? to vote.  Vote 12/13 to have your vote count. Thanks!

Income Distribution Disparity... Despair...ity... Increases

Are de wich wee-wee getting witcher?  Are de poo wee-wee getting poo-uh?

Unh-huh! Uhn-huh! YoU KNoW iT!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMdbS1VU5do

Check this fun-filled YouTube video to visualize the rise of Banana Republicdom in the United States of Mexico   (northern annex)...

You know in your heart and gut this jus' ain't right, and somethin's gonna hafta give.

Why is Intentional Organizational Change so Hard?

Organizations are like biological organisms, both with encoded behaviors, both impacting and responding to changes in their environments.  Organisms and organizations alike survive and prosper or fail based on adaptations to their coding.  Organisms use DNA and RNA, organizations use explicit directives and repeated actions.  Further, while organisms and organizations must change to survive, they both exhibit resistance to "excessive" change. If too much change occurs per unit of time, internal coordination breaks down, causing  organisms and organizations to lose effectiveness in dealing with the environment, with consequences up to and including death.

Let’s assume for now that we have an organization that is not “changing excessively” (how do we know that?  A good matter for another discussion.)  So why are proposed changes hard?  Let’s start with the “hard” part -- how many times have you heard someone say something is "hard" and you thought to yourself that "hard" was simply be an excuse to avoid work or apologize for poor work?  If we remove value judgment, when we assess that organizational change is “hard” or “difficult” to execute, what we are saying is that we have not secured acceptance and endorsement of the proposed change from a critical mass of participants, together with their performance of all necessary actions to effect it.   You can claim there are three primary elements of intentional organization change:  1) a promise of benefits to the proposed change, together with 2) a set of requests  for necessary effective actions by a critical mass of participants, 3) promises to perform and fulfillment of the necessary effective actions for change by the critical mass of participants.

We can observe an overall breakdown in implementing organizational change as one or more breakdowns in the underlying primary elements:

Breakdowns in the promise of change:

·  Inadequate distribution/promotion (aka “selling”) of the proposition to enlist a critical mass of participants

·  Ambiguity, lack of specificity and/or low assessed value of benefits offered, causing a lack of endorsement of change by a critical mass of participants

Breakdowns in requesting and securing promises for effective action:

·  Requests for actions that prove to be ineffective or harmful to the organization

·  Participants’ fear of failure in performing actions required by propose change

Breakdowns in Participants’ taking necessary effective actions:

·  Critical mass of participants make necessary promises to act, but are not sincere about fulfilling their promises

·  Critical mass of participants promise, are sincere, but are not competent to fulfill the necessary actions

·  Participants promise and fulfill requested action but requested action proves to be ineffective or harmful to the organization

And just as importantly, breakdowns in organizational change can be due to changes in the environment that occur during the change process.  Organizations cannot “act in a vacuum” - proposed organizational change can fail if during the time the organization takes to design and implement change the environment changes in a way that diminishes or invalidates the benefits of the proposed change.

Using this framework, we can appreciate that intentional organizational change is a grand design project requiring numerous effective conversations concerning what is desirable, what is possible and how the work of change is fulfilled, and how its effects should be assessed.  How many organizational changes have you participated in that were designed versus "driven", and what were the consequences?   At work?  In local/regional/national/global politics?  

Immodest Proposal: Better Uses for TSA

Since shortly after 911 the TSA became a self-justifying, make-work bureaucracy diminishing an already-poor air travel experience.  Stronger cabin doors and pilots with firearms provide a good level of in-flight security.  TSA cost-benefit analysis is oxymoronic.  Even though common sense says TSA is a waste, it seems to have remarkable political staying power.  What to do?  Time to think outside the full-body scanning box!

If it is as yet politically impossible to do away with TSA (and for that matter, all of HS) then perhaps we could apply their vast pool of detail-focused, rule-driven spotters and pattern-recognizers to more productive purposes.  A few suggestions:

1) Outreach to major cities.  Mission: find and root out bedbugs.  Good thing is, there are already plenty of TSA staff already positioned in every major city to do this work.  Wahoo.

2) Effect a Private/Public partnership.  Dispatch TSA workers with utility crews to inspect gas pipelines.  Unlinke current assignment, absolutely certain to proactively save innocent lives.

3) Build trust in the financial system.  Redirect TSA to track down "FraudClosureGate" robosigners.

4) Help law enforcement.  TSA would be perfect to assist enforcement of the recent wave of legislation around the country making it illegal to sit, lie or sleep on sidewalks and park benches.  The best part is TSA staff doesn't have to just "move 'em along"... they can teach the unfortunate and indigent how to sleep standing up, with their eyes open.

Now sit back, relax, and enjoy your flight.

Quantitative Easing - the Definitive Euphemism of 2010 - Explained

This video is going viral, for good reason.  Enjoy "Quantitative Easing for Kids"!



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k

Agree/Disagree: Coincidence is one measure of how open and receptive you are.

A Different "the Fed - Fantasy Island"

Fact: Federal Reserve is printing money like never before and is prohibited (who’s watching?) from monetizing Federal debt.

Fact: Real (not BLS-reported) unemployment is at Depression-levels, and the politicians' favorite phrase is "create jobs".

Fact:  Startup Innovator Companies turn investment into employment very quickly.

IMMODEST PROPOSAL 2: Allocate just 2% of the Federal Reserve’s $600B (nominal!) QE2 to matching funds with angel and venture investors with requirement that money must be invested in early stage (A-round) companies within 6 months.  At an average $3MM round, 8,000 companies would be funded and at least  160,000 primary jobs that support even more service and support jobs would be generated.  Not to mention the benefits accruing to innovation pursued by the companies.  This would be the cheapest Federal job creation program ever, and you could even porkify it by letting legislators steer money to "hard-hit" areas! ... uh, oh wait, we can't do that, it would make all the other programs look bad.  Never mind.  Sorry.

An Immodest Proposal

Fact: Lots of empty capacity on freighters returning to Asia.

Fact: Overcrowded California prisons not far from major ports.

Fact: Cost of incarceration in California excessive – thanks prison guard unions and feckless politicians.

Fact: China is overloaded with empty buildings and has labor @ great rates.

IMMODEST PROPOSAL 1:  Send California convicts on return freighters to China, where they can occupy empty buildings and be guarded by non-union staff.  Fringe benefit:  Escape to…. where?  Arnold couldn’t export prisoners to Mexico, but this time, it could be different!

Theater of the Absurd

The confluence of rapidly rising speculative valuations on Apple, Netflix, Amazon and others combined with record-levels of insider stock selling and market trading dominated by racks of algo robots qualifies this period in history for the moniker Theater of the Absurd.  Oh, let's not forget the $trillions of dollars the Federal Reserve is and will continue to print in order to reduce the value of the dollar and foster a chimeric rising stock market to assuage all us sheeple that our economy is moving forward, or in recovery, or whatever the eupehemism du jour is.  Oh, and let's also not forget BLS statistics - where poor showings have been consistently underreported and then revised upward later, when the mainstream media isn't paying attention.

Here is a good, short article by analyst Allan Newman http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/NEWMAN.html on some aspects of our ongoing Theater of the Absurd.  Good reading, and quick.  And let me recommend again, for contrarian perspective, adding www.zerohedge.com to your reading list.

A Little Gem of a Movie - My Dog Tulip

Do you love dogs?  Do you find them interesting?  Do you appreciate hand-drawn and painted animation?  If you do you should try to find a screen that has "My Dog Tulip" and go see it.

This animated story is based on Joe Ackerley's book on finding his lifetime best friend - an Alsation he rescued at 18 months and kept company with for 15 years, from when he was "well over 50" into advanced age.  The story is sentimental without being maudlin or too cute, and whimsical in a wonderfully wry manner.  All of the characters drawn by Ackerley, even the little bit characters, live fully and expressively.

The old-school animation by husband-and-wife team Paul and Sandra Fierlinger is subtle and rich at the same time. The pencil line-art cartoonery that punctuates the flow is clever and very amusing.... I could easily watch a feature length story done that way.

The voices are first rate - Christopher Plummer, Lynne Redgrave, Isabella Rossellini - what would you expect?

A great "little" story with a lot of depth.  What a nice surprise!

Public Pensions Too Much to Swallow - For Another Public Agency!

A little more daylight on one of the biggest economic elephants in the room - public pension funding.  Seems a cozy relationship between LA City and the DWP where they just transfer "layed off" workers back and forth is under some real stress...  LA City recently handed DWP something like 1500 "transfers" and now DWP is saying they can't afford to pay the pensions that are coming due.  http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-dwp-pension-20101014,0,5040462.story

This is piquant given the fact that DWP is notorious for compensating its public servants to the tune of 50% higher than LA City for comparable jobs.

The private sector continues to take a full measure of austerity in this terrible economy, while the public sector continues to pay large salaries and even larger pensions to police, fire, prison and other public employees.  Public jobs outpay their private counterparts, and when you add in the "ghosts" - public pensioners who can retire at about 50 and then receive full pay for decades - that are adding to the burden of each job position, it's utterly ludicrous.

A California Gubernatorial Election Theme

I had the wonderful good fortune to see Donald Fagen, Michael McDonald and Boz Scaggs plus an all-star band perform recently at San Francisco's Hardly Strictly Bluegrass festival.   They did a fantastic rendition of Steely Dan's "Peg".  I hate it when current news gets enmeshed with songs I enjoy.  The only cure is to write it down.  I don't have time to record this, so I'll just have to offer up the lyrics...

MEG (with many apologies to Steely Dan)
I've seen your picture
Your money surely bought it
This is your big debut
You’ve got 2thousand dollar shoes
So won't you smile for a camera?
they’ll need to photoshop it, Meg

I like your cheap shots

Nobody does them better

You run a skewer through
Cheap and mean that’s you

And when you lie for a camera
I know I’ll love you better

Meg
It will come back to you
Meg
It will come back to you
Then your campaign stalls
You see it all in 3-D
Jerry Brown’s your nightmare movie

I like your trick shots
Nobody shoots them better
Wherever you point them to
They ricochet on you
And when you lie for a camera
the voters will know better

Meg
It will come back to you
Meg
It will come back to you
Then your campaign stalls
You see it all in 3-D
Jerry Brown’s your nightmare movie

Who Do You Trust?

Is it just me or are we in a time of diminishing Trust?

Every day I'm reminded of how we are losing Trust in our politicians, our big corporations (banks, please go to the top of the list), our unions, our public sector, our economy, and just about everything we're exposed to by the media.  Heck, even one of my favorite trusted web sources, Yelp, is now defending several class action suits with allegations including review tampering.  For Pete's sake.

A teacher once showed me that there are two elements to Trust - first, the presence or absence of Sincerity, and second, the presence or absence of Competence.  Trust is built by recurrence supported by Sincerity and Competence...  if my plumber has shown up and fixed my problem the last six times in a row, I Trust she will do it the next time I call.  Conversely, when politicians say that BLS unemployment data indicates continuing recovery, I remember that those data have been consistently revised in the bad direction every month and reported in such a way as to mask the full magnitude of the persistent employment problems we face.  Trust? Not.

When political races consistently boil down to intense negative campaigning, what happens to Trust?  

When a neighborhood is immolated by it's public utility company and the back story shows the tragedy was eminently preventable, what happens to Trust?

On the bright side, I still Trust people and organizations that are Sincere and Competent... fortunately enough to make life work well.  I hope you have many people in your life you can Trust... it's precious.

Great Sleeper of a Movie - Winnebago Man

Whether or not you are familiar with the viral-video phenomenon known as "Winnebago Man"  (outtakes of Jack Rebney making Winnebago promo videos), if you get a chance to see the movie of the same name, do it!

Winnebago Man gets behind the YouTube schadenfreude of watching people bonk or otherwise find the next level of humiliation on camera, and gets to a deeper story about a thoughtful, articulate man and the times he found himself living in.

Whether you agree with protagonist Jack Rebney's musings or not is beside the point.  At the very least, you will probably get some very welcome laughs.

28th Amendment?

A friend of mine sent me this... I like it so much I'm going to shamelessly plagiarize it.  If you agree, please pass the message along to 20 people in your network.

Governors of 35 states have already filed suit against the Fed eral Government for imposing unlawful burdens upon them.  It only takes 38 (of the 50) States to convene a Constitutional Convention.

The following will take less than thirty seconds to read. If you agree, please pass it on.

An idea whose time has come...

For too long we have been too complacent about the workings of Congress.  Many citizens had no idea that members of Congress could retire with the same pay after only one term, that they didn't pay into Social Security, that they specifically exempted themselves from many of the laws they have passed (such as being exempt from any fear of prosecution for sexual harassment) while ordinary citizens must live under those laws. The latest is to exempt themselves from the Healthcare Reform... in all of its forms. Somehow, that doesn't seem logical. We do not have an elite that is above the law. I truly don't care if they are Democrat, Republican, Independent or whatever. The self-serving must stop.  This is a good way to do that. It is an idea whose time has come.

Have each person contact a minimum of twenty people on their Address list; in turn ask each of those to do likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the message. This is one proposal that  really should be passed around.

Proposed 28th Amendment

to the United States Constitution

"Congress shall make no law

that applies to the citizens of the United States

that does not apply equally

to the Senators and/or Representatives;

and, Congress shall make no law

that applies to the Senators and/or Representatives

that does not apply equally

to the citizens of the United States."

You are one of my 20!

Independence Day

As we approach the official anniversary of the founding of our Republic, we should pause to reflect on the meaning of Independence.  Here are ten things I’d like our country to be Independent of:

10. Non-critical, ungrounded commentary – parroted, packaged & distributed; anchored by an intentionally ineffective Fourth Estate

9. Reality TV 

8. Bad manners and general lack of civility (which came first, the #9 or the #8?) in all domains of life – a modicum of decorum is still necessary for everyone to realize their Pursuit of Happiness

7. Permanent, Full-Time Politicians, even worse than standing Armies

6. Double-dipped and spiked public pensions (#7 & #6 are competing with #8 & #9 !) exemplifying the shift in our culture from industry and contribution to bureaucracy and entitlement

5. The 1999 Graham-Leach-Bliley Act repealing banking/speculation separation prohibition of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act, together with the allowance of multiple layers of synthetic derivatives (the towering house of shaky cards built by Goldman Sachs that is amplifying the worldwide financial crisis).  Giving the country over to the Financial Elite was perhaps not the best idea in the history of the USA…

4. Politically-driven public education… having schools as political footballs and training grounds for future ranks of full-time politicians is at best a distraction from focusing on the education of our youth -- as Frank Zappa said, “shut up and play yer guitar”

3. Government-issued statistics (major dietary item for #10)

2. Customer service policies that say “I understand…” but mean “SCREW YOU!”

and finally…

1. Brand marketing that concatenates  two English-sounding names, with or without hyphen… our Republic fought hard to gain independence from the British Empire; why the nostalgia?!

So go online and read some of the original text of our Declaration of Independence  http://www.earlyamerica.com/earlyamerica/freedom/doi/text.html .  Guaranteed to be inspiring, guaranteed never to go out of fashion.

Happy 4^th!

Policitians Proclaim Homogeneity of Irrelevance

Yesterday I attended the SF Pride parade.  I've never witnessed this happening before, but it's well worth going especially if you live in the area.

Two impressions - first, that the acceptance, tolerance and live-let-live bias in San Francisco is a pretty remarkable thing regardless of your position(s) in the human diversity spectra.  When everything from hedonism to courage (the small VFW contingent - what it must have meant for them to come out?!) can peacefully coexist, there is some reason for celebration.

Second, seemingly EVERY local politician had a spot in the parade, with their entourage of handlers/supporters/beneficiaries.   By and large, the current crop of politicians and cronies have no real claim on the social climate that is San Francisco, but they're all for sitting in convertibles getting their faces in front of x00,000 free advertising impressions to assist the next re-election grab.  How does this kind of grandstanding contribute to the celebration of the day?  Maybe some day, parade organizers will ban politicians... oh wait, how would they get all the necessary permits?

The State Budget Deficit Derby Finalists

Many States cannot legally resort to bankruptcy to clear the decks on their busted budgets. With taxpaying voters justifiably recalcitrant to hand over more dough to governments at any level, budget impasses will only get more interesting as shortfall pressure builds. When resources are scarce, what do competing interests do? Smile and shake hands? NOT!

So let's consider the positions and actions of the heavy combatants in coming budget debacles. Who do you think will win? Who has the strongest hand? Who will voters/taxpayers support?

Public Employees
----------------
Public employee one-way ratcheted pay and pension benefits are the proverbial parasite killing the host. the employee unions will argue that their compensation is contractual and cannot be diminished. They will do whatever necessary to fight layoffs and hour reductions. In Stockton, the police officers' union sponsored a graphic (blood on the streets) billboard campaign warning residents that any reductions in staffing will regrettably make in impossible to guarantee their safety. Gee, I didn't know we had a guarantee now? Do we? How'd we miss it? Colorado has taken a bold and courageous stand against budget shakedowns by the public sector, going after CURRENT pay and pension benefits.  This is a very powerful interest group with a big voting block and strong lobbying.


Schools
-------
Schools take a big share of most budgets. Schools have been dealt a number of cutbacks already including layoffs. Schoolers have been reluctant to compete head-on with other public employee interest groups. Where possible (universities) they've resorted to compounded fee increases. There will be a resistance point for that... just haven't seen it expressed fully yet.  Will the school interest group be willing to detonate real bombs?  Like closing neighborhood schools (already FULL) and sending those kids even FULLER schools farther away?


Bondholders
-----------
Running last (at least for now) behind schools and public employees for claim on state money are state bondholders.  Even in debt-soaked California, state bond interest is still in single digits... something like 7% of the budget.  But even that money is a juicy target. Why not just stiff the bondholders?  Don't think so. Bondholders have connections. And even more importantly, states need bonds even in normal or good years to deal with highly seasonal and variable income streams from taxes. Unless taxation can be changed to provide steady revenue (there's a good battle that will bring EVERYONE in) states absolutely cannot do without bonds.  Plus, the cost of state bonds is directly related to the perceived ability and commitment of the state to pay the interest. What sane state would risk injuring its #1 finance tool and making it cost much more?


At this point, I'm betting on bondholders to win the budget deficit derby. They will be paid their interest on time, regardless of the political fires raging all around. Who will come in second? The powerful public employees unions and lobbies, or schools? Can either interest group come out of this without major structural changes? Let's see what happens when tapped-out public pension funds start appropriating money out of state general funds... should be a fascinating debate.  In the meantime, as state bond interest goes up, those tax-free bonds might start looking pretty good compared to essentially zero-percent Treasuries and money market funds...

The Great Addiction: Greed and Debt

Here is an excellent overview of the genesis and state of our greed>debt addiction, which isn't the same thing as capitalism. Well worth reading and thinking about.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-two-decades-greed-unraveling


The $.64 question is, will we have continuing deflation (possibly severe) or will the central banks' tireless print-more-money efforts take us straight to high inflation? Being wrong on this bet could cost savers/investors a tremendous amount of their net worth and purchasing power.

Zerohedge - an interesting and worthwhile blog

If you are concerned about the state of Rule of Law, Market Transparency (is there any still?), Sovereign Debt and Bankruptcy, Bubbles, etc. you should check out www.zerohedge.com. Maybe not popular or mainstream theses and editorial but well worth consideration along with the swirl of other information and misininformation we are treated to on a daily basis. The authors challenge how most of us usually think. That's a good thing.

ALL CAPS

Oil spew is good for a lot of headlines.

Underneath the headlines was an interesting bit discussing an apparently ill-advised yet government-approved BP plan over objections of the rig operators to withdraw drilling fluids BEFORE CAPPING THE WELL and taking it out of service. The fingerpointing spotlighted that this shortcut, out-of-normal-order approach may well have been the proximate cause of the gas escape and explosion that started this whole goat rodeo.

Wait a minute... they said they WERE ABOUT TO CAP THE WELL and take it out of service before the accident. Why would BP want to cap a well that obviously produces a whole lotta oil? If anyone knows the reason, I'd love to see it in print.

Timely - A 911 Victim Tax!

Just after commenting on this potential new wave of fiscal engineering opportunity, this appears in the news:

http://cbs2chicago.com/investigations/crash.tax.fire.2.1615889.html

This is a new one on me ... the man in question was involved in a vehicular accident, not his fault, a third party called 911, fire/paramedic responded, and billed the man $200 for emergency services he did not need nor request.

BRAVO! That's some real budget buttering thinkering outside the box!

The New Fiscal Strategic Mandate - Victim Taxes!

As a newly arrived resident in San Francisco, there's plenty to discover. Much of it interesting and great. As to municipal government, well, it's government, and what I'm discovering isn't terribly encouraging. But some of it might get you thinking...

This week brought a true policy aha. Lately there has been a wave of tagging in the neighborhood I live in. You'd think an occasional police beat in the late night and early morning hours would be a decent deterrent, well, no evidence of that so far. Something much more inventive from government instead! It turns out that property owners are required by ordinance to clean up graffiti/tagging within 30 days or PAY A FINE to the City!

Doesn't this just get your creative juices gushing?! Think of the possibilities this portends - governments have at their disposal a virtually untapped new source of funds to confiscate - VICTIM TAXES! Need to report a crime? Why not a large reporting fee? Police come out to your broken-into car to tell you too bad? How about a hefty "annoyance" ticket for displaying a vandalized vehicle? Muni bus or train 30 minutes late? Watch out for the loitering fee! Property down in value? Sure, get it reassessed now - for a large fee! Or, just wait until the housing market comes back around to match your appraisal.

VICTIM TAXES! The road to a balanced budget, the wave of the future. You read it here first.

It's About Time

When mortgages got into the hyper-crazy phase of the real estate market bubble, you could see powerful imprints of the HANDS OF TIME. Mortgage amortizations stretched out (will you still be alive when the loan is paid off?), "Teaser" interest rates with enough time to lull the buyer into false comfort showed up, and balloon payments became more prevalent.

Our politicians and public servants, not wanting to be left out, continue to demonstrate true mastery in manipulating TIME as a core political lever. The just-passed healthcare 'reform' legislation uses time to introduce costs and benefits that activate up to ten years from now. In San Francisco, a "windfall" of funds has postponed needed cost rationalization in the bloated MUNI transit system by a year - hey, people can forget a LOT in a year!

Oh, let's not forget the slickest TIME BOMB of all, the long-term forecast. I love to hear official forecasts involving $XXX bazillions... OVER TEN YEARS! Heck, over any ten year period, our official forecasters have missed every significant recession or depression, calling for monotonic, feel-good GDP growth rates and spending accordingly. Puh-leeze. Smart businesses aggregate as many products as possible into their base forecast... and that is over the short term. Going out much over a year invites "volatility" from unanticipated sources and directions. It's time for politicians and the public sector to join the private sector in dealing with WHAT IS instead of WHAT SHOULD NEVER BE. How about pulling the headphones and stopping the "Time is on My Side" charade at public expense?

The march of time definitely goes on, but we can do with less of it being over avoidable cliffs.

The NeoSpeak Chronicles - Using Language to GET YOUR WAY!

It's fun to share and trade Neospeak Snippets - Collect 'em All! Learn these POWER PHRASES and become master of your universe!!!

Using nuances of language to gain ends or at least buy time to come up with something better is as old as language itself.  But it's been on a powerful uptrend since the emergence of instantaneous mass communication, and the turbo-distribution and redistribution potential for content by the Internet has really kicked up the afterburners.

***

“I wish to tell you that my Government will continue working every day to find and apply solutions for the issues that most worry you and your family. The goals of transforming Mexico require the effort and commitment of all. We have problems, yes; we are confronting them, and we are going to overcome them and move ahead.” (Mexico President Felipe Calderon, September 2008)

TRANSLATION: I may wish to, but I won't! "My Government is powerless to do anything about the issues that most worry you and your family. You got your troubles, I got mine."

***

Asked on Sunday whether Israeli "intransigence" was putting US "troops' lives at risk", David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr Obama, said "that region and that issue is a flare point throughout the region so I'm not going to put it in those terms".  (March 14, 2010)

TRANSLATION: "We all know Jerusalem is a powderkeg and the Israelis are being assholes with these new settlements.  Glad you said it so that I wouldn't have to."

***

President Obama on difficulty passing healthcare 'reform' in the Senate (March 15, 2010):  "I don't know about the politics, but I know what's the right thing to do," he said, nearly shouting as the crowd cheered.

TRANSLATION:  I just re-read Cliff Notes for the Prince.  Machiavelli was right; the ends do justify the means.

***

SF Mayor Gavin Newsom on announced intention to run for Lt. Gubbner and leave Mayor's office early: ""Don't think for a second I'm walking away from San Francisco. Not for a second," Newsom said. "This is my city. I care deeply about it. I'd never walk away from this town."

TRANSLATION:  "Walk?  Man, I'm jettin' before this mess implodes! Besides, the City is going to let me keep that $58K hybrid SUV and all my friends have private jets.  See Ya!"

***

...and some quickies:

"working tirelessly to..."   TRANSLATION - "got nothing. go away."

"doing the people's work..."  TRANSLATION - look at the contraction, and expand it -- "doing the people is work."

Answer to Higher Unemployment? Raise Sales Taxes!

Yesterday's news headlines neatly juxtaposed higher employment rates reported in 30 states with record highs in sales tax levels along with more talk of taxes on internet commerce.

The sales tax piece is courtesy of FORBES --

The highest sales tax rate is in a tiny hamlet in Alabama... a whopping 12.5%. Well, what is a poor local government to do when the residents can't support it properly with income and property taxes?

12.5% is also the reported unemployment figure for California. Maybe the nearly-10% sales taxes around the state need to be bumped up a couple percent to match? That should help. You know, patch some of those irritating "budget shortfalls" so that public headcount, salaries and benefits can remain largely untouched.

Maybe the Greeks have something to tell us if we'll listen. To wit, if you allow the public sector to become corrupt and fat, you will bankrupt your country. They are farther down the slippery slope than we are; we should pay heed to the warnings from their rear-view mirror. A bloated public sector is one of the surest ways to lose national competitiveness and increase total poverty. "Poverty doesn't cause corruption; corruption causes poverty."

The Other Side of "Share the Road"

Bikes are fun. Good exercise. Non-polluting transportation. And their riders deserve respect and care by motorists. Sharing the Road isn't a slogan, it's just common courtesy and decency.

But motorists are not the only offenders in this dialog. Every day I am amazed at how consistently bike riders blow through stop signs and stop lights as if graced with Divine Kevlar Bubbles. Do they not appreciate the fundamental physics of bicycle/automobile embraces? I worry every time I get behind the wheel that one of these "immortal" cyclists and I will meet under unfortunate circumstances. And over the years, I find I'm feeling less supportive of cyclists because of it.

Then there is the group blockade phenomenon. I get the social side of riding with friends, but when travelling in packs on busy roads with bike lanes, why are they not travelling IN THE BIKE LANES? How many times have you had to crawl or cross the center line to give berth to four- or five-abreast cyclists? Again, I wonder what they're thinking when they do this... does brightly colored spandex restrict bloodflow to the brain?

I hope they're not thinking "I AM CYCLIST, HEAR ME ROAR, WE OWN THE WHOLE ROAD BECAUSE WE ARE THE VIRTUOUS ONES!" Sharing the road means just that, sharing. And that road has to be a two-way street.

From the Break Room: Incredible New Fusion Music from the Fishtank Ensemble

It was a great privilege to catch a show in San Francisco recently featuring two great acts - George Cole Quintet, followed by the Fishtank Ensemble. Ostensibly honoring the 100th birthday of the late great Django Reinhardt, the Hot Gypsy Jazz Wizard.

George Cole is a gifted songwriter whose material sounds like it is a seamless extension of the Hot Jazz period. Catchy swingin' numbers with fun and wry lyrics. George is an inspiring hot jazz guitarist as well.

The members of The George Cole Quintet are: bandleader Cole on guitar and vocals, Julian Smedley on violin, Molly Mahoney on co-lead vocal, Jimmy Grant on rhythm guitar and Kenan O'Brien on standup bass. Molly exudes a wholesome persona very reminiscent of 30s/40s (nice matching of lipstick and shoes BTW!) and refreshingly fits in and supports the band instead of going over the Diva Waterfall. Julian's violin virtuosity is very reminiscent of Stephane Grapelli, you can just close your eyes and smile while he solos. Highly recommended.

NOW, for the SURPRISE. What do you get when you mash up Serbian Dance and Yodel music, Romanian and Roma Folk Music, Gypsy Jazz and Rockabilly? The FISHTANK ENSEMBLE! This high-voltage group is a LA/SF blend that has a high gear unlike anything I've ever heard before (in a good way!).
The band is: Fabrice Martinez (Violin and Violintromba)- you are not going to hear a hotter violin anywhere in this part of the universe, I promise. Worth the price of admission all by himself ; Ursula Knudson (Saw, Voice, and Violin) who can yodel in the highest register one minute and then completely GET Billie Holiday the next, and then do a quick change and scat sing ... WITH A SAW! ; Douglas Smolens (Guitar) who combines hot jazz and flamenco with a lot of sophistication ; and the FORCE of NATURE, Djordje Stijepovic (Bass) who all but flies his standup bass to the moon (spins, throws'n'catches, rockabilly postures and poses) as he both lays down incredible bass lines and plays drums with his slapping at the same time. If you can see this band, do it! It's going to take patience and time to build a sizable following, but their fans are totally rabid with great justification. The Fishtank Ensemble is something really exciting in today's largely featureless musical landscape. HOT HOT HOT!!!

BTW, the venue, the Noe Valley Ministry Music Series, is very cool. Where else can you get great acoustics, an intimate setting, and drink beer in a Church? Exactly. Well worth attending if you get a chance, an excellent lineup of acts in a Series that's been going almost 30 years.

Criminal Justice and the Sexual Predator

New horrors of suspected crimes by registered sex offender John Albert Gardner III are being revealed in northern San Diego County on an almost daily basis.

Having at one time lived in that peaceful, quiet area, home to retirees and working families, I got to wondering just how pervasive our problem of sexual predators on the loose is. I visited California's "Megan's Law" website to get an idea.



It turns out that small, quiet, peaceful San Luis Obispo County has 300 registered sex offenders. Figure this is the tip of the... whatever... since so many sex crimes go unreported. What happened in Escondido-Rancho Bernardo-Poway can happen anywhere.

And the most tragic part is that prosecutors and judges don't seem to understand or resonate with the fact that sex offenders have one of the highest rates of recidivism of all crimes (averaging 4x other crime categories). Why in the world, when the State Psychoanalyst says "uh, this guy is one of the real bad ones... you oughtta go for the maximum sentence (only 10 years)" would a Prosecutor go for just six and then the Judge agrees? John Albert Gardner III served only five years and then was free to go out and stalk, torture and kill more innocent girls.

How many of you feel that the innocents are being senselessly slaughtered out of consideration for sex offenders' rights? It would seem at the very least if a sex offender does time, gets out, and commits another sex crime and is convicted, he (overwhelmingly male population) should never see the free side of civil society again. You can take it from there, I don't mind.

In the meantime, we can track the records of elected officials including DAs and Judges and see which ones fail to understand how dangerous sexual predators are. Come election time, they can go, thank you.

Even USA Today Agrees - Federal Workers Make More than Private Sector

READ THIS  http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-03-04-federal-pay_N.htm

Is this a surprise?  It shouldn't be.

While taxpayers have been sleeping, the public sector has been accumulating.   Where else in the economy is hiring, pay and promotion predicated so much on internal arcana that normal market labor forces only really apply at entry level positions?

Where else in the economy do functions get to compare their pay to their "peers" (only other government agencies) and then apply a "we get to keep up with the average" pay and benefits ratchet?

Where else in the economy do workers retire so early with the same compensation they were receiving while employed?

All of this at taxpayer expense, because taxpayers HAVE NO OVERSIGHT over THEIR EMPLOYEES because their elected 'representatives' are not representing the taxpayers.

In the current climate, the public sector is howling over "budget shortfalls".  Budgets in the public sector don't seem to work like in the private sector.  The public sector decides how much it wants and then either takes it from the taxpayers (DON'T LET THEM!) or, if powerful enough as in the Federal Government, creates funny-money and swells the deficit that will saddle our children and their children and even their children.

Taxpaying voters need to take control of this agenda.  Our ongoing economic malaise could be the kindling that helps start the fire of public sector wage and benefit acccountability and control.

Another Case of "Capitolism"

LINK>  Sen. Roy Ashburn arrested on suspicion of drunk driving

What did I just say? We need to do away with State Capitols (don't forget the biggest big house, DC).  What do FULL-TIME POLITICIANS (this wrong-headed idea is worthy of examination) do while they're away from home and family?  YES, they run around all night in STATE VEHICLES (thanks taxpayers) with FAT-CHECKBOOKED LOBBYISTS.  Roy Ashburn doing his best to 'represent' Bakersfield in good ol' Sacramento, "Home of the Gold Rush" (not to be confused with mineral extraction).

Let me repeat, Capitols are historical artifacts we can't afford anymore.

The article in the LA Times is linked above.  The comments aren't bad... pol strong on crime sets bad example, we need part-time legislature in CA, etc.  Worth a quick read.

To Protect and Serve

Themselves, not the public.

I've been a longtime resident of San Luis Obispo County, a very quiet place on California's central coast.  Light traffic, low crime.  Despite this, our Sherriff's Department has consistently grown especially in salaries and pension benefits.  There are desk pushers making, yes, hundreds of thousands a year.  A strong union sleeping with and pushing feckless politicians around is a cool feature in this discourse.

Now confronted with "budget shortfall" (hey how about rolling back last year's double-digit pay increase and losing some top-heavy admin?) the suggested solution is to reluctantly consider letting 11 employees go and, most importantly, letting inmates out of jail!

Similar self-serving twaddle is emanating from municipalities all over the country.  The private sector has pulled in its collective belt mightily in this Depression (yes, I will call it that because of all the spin and BS being used to obscure the true states of joblessness, credit risks, and even threats to sovereignty around the world) but the public sector is largely responding by cutting services.  There was an NPR report on Colorado Springs where instead of laying off more employees or cutting pay and benefits, public management closed all the parks and no longer performs road maintenance.  I wonder what all those remaining employees actually do all day now that they no longer need to either provide services or appear to?  In San Jose, public employees have the gall to talk to Ms TV microphone and say that people can't jog or walk in a park because they can't afford to provide services there on certain days of the week, making it unsafe.  Where are the cost savings for these reduced services?!  Maybe there is a deeper meaning of 'unsafe'.

When Arnold the Governator suggested that illegal immigrants imprisoned in California be relocated to incarceration south of the border, a real political firestorm broke out... by the Prison Guards union.  Great going guys (and gals), way to protect and serve... your own interests.

San Francisco Municipal transit employees (contractually GUARANTEED of being at least the 2nd highest paid in the USA, who negotiated THAT? and which contract has the cojones to actually demand to be the Highest-Paid?) are very grumbly about "budget shortfalls"... let's see, we have bus drivers making $140K... you don't suppose they could have a temporary pay rollback until better times emerge?  NO!!! The plan is to.... REDUCE SERVICE and in case you haven't noticed, SF buses and trains are quite full almost all of the time.  The public, as usual, is likely to get the shaft from THEIR EMPLOYEES.

Voters and taxpayers are still 99.9% asleep when it comes to holding public employees accountable.  Instead, we've let public employment count, salaries and pensions go through the roof.  Politicians love public employees, an easy voting block to buy.  It's just like elementary school, except that in public service, they really do put Coke in the drinking fountains.

A Modest Proposal To Do Away With Capitols

Handwringing and lamentations on the sorry state of the cluster that is our political world find numerous causes and blamespots.  Greed, corruption, lobbyists, lawyers, special interests, pork... sure, everyday flatulence in the human collective.  Do we enjoy the art of the complaint so much that we would blind ourselves to root causes of dysfunction, misdemeanors and graver offenses? Why, indeed, are we so complacent about the single greatest contributor to this seemingly complex malaise?

Think about your elected "representatives".  How many days a year do they spend in their consituents district?  How many days a year to they spend in the capitol?  Sadly many of the people we elect to steward the public interest spend a preponderance of their time out of district, hobnobbing with their career-peers.

If a person spends most a lot of time in jail, he or she learns how to be a better criminal and feel ever less empathy for the victimate (should be a word if it isn't yet).

If a person spends most of his or her time in a casino, the product is a more confirmed gambler.

If a person spends most of his or her time in the confines of a cloister, greater enlightenment may occur but getting its value to outside adherents becomes less likely.

Help me here... let's build a list of things that naturally happen when politicians spend most of their time in Capitols.  For starters --

• They get to know Capitol nightlife and have a real good time away from family and community while in their home-away-from-home.  And of course powerful figures attract a lot of temptations... and it's so much easier for the Temptations (sorry, not musical) if they can converge on a convenient location, like a Capitol.  Capitols foment Scandals.
• They hang with lobbyists with fat checkbooks.  One of the many Temptations.
• They hang with other politicians who help develop best practices in having fun beyond scrutiny and getting money from fat checkbooks.  Just like time in the yard at the big house.
• They don't have to spend tedious time interacting personally with constituents, one of the few duties that make a political career a drag
• They can spend most of their actual working time creating legislation which creates new opportunities for fat checkbooks to appear.

Why on Earth do we still have a system that fosters and promotes a lack of accountability to consituents and encourages the development of a robust market in bad behaviors?  Capitols were invented when people had to travel on foot or horseback to meet with distant peers.  If you wanted to convene a decision-making group you didn't have a lot of choices.   But that was, uh, like the last century or two, who's counting?


Come on now, why can't lawmakers GoToMeeting and GoogleDoc?  How long will it be before the inventors of the Internet start to use it to be more productive and accountable?  JK.  It boils down to addictions to a power-trippin' alternate life with all the attendant perks and pleasures.  As long as we the taxpayers and voters permit it, our elected reps and their large retinues will continue to rack up big travel and second-living-arrangement expenses and avoid spending quality time with us.  If we want the pols to spend more time in their constituents' communities, listening to and involving constituents, we will have to force the issue.  We need to bust up the Capitol paradigm and put it out to pasture with the mail pouch on horseback.  Dispersing politicians would make it a lot harder for influence and vice peddlers to develop a thriving full-service community around them.

As taxpayers and voters, we should exercise our right to demand that lawmakers spend most of their time in the home district... like 2/3 or 3/4 for starters, and increasing over time.  When the reps are in town, we have a better chance of holding them accountable to US.  "Voting the bums out" only replaces one group of foibled humans with another.  It would be better to fundamentally change the rules of the game.  A change of venue would be a good start.  Maybe we can wind down the cost of carrying Capitols and their dysfunctional games, and put those resources back in taxpayers' pockets or into service of real public interest.

Are We Not Fat Heads?

NPR offered a commentary on advances in neuroscience that offers middle-agers a good/bad sandwich.  As we age, our memories fade both in ability to store and access.  Of course reaction times slow down as well. Then this bit - adults continue accreting myelin sheath, a form of fatty tissue analogous to electrical insulation on the nerves well into middle age.  This allows for faster transmission of complex signals - permitting the more mature to excel at complex reasoning and judgment. Is gaining acuity in this world an unmixed blessing?  Regardless, next time someone calls you a fathead, it could actually be a compliment.