Does (Federal Reserve) History Repeat?

Despite a 20% real inflation rate, the Federal Reserve is holding short and long interest rates at near-zero levels.   Just another dreary floater in the sewer of current American monetary and fiscal policies?   Not quite.  In fact, it's likely you weren't even a ward of the nanny state yet - this was 1951.  Harry Truman had basically fired two venerable Federal Reserve Chairmen, including the one whose name graces the Fed's NY building - Marriner Eccles.   This article from ZeroHedge is a must-read.  Bear with it.  See here:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/who-lying-federal-reserve-or-federal-reserve-and-why-stalin-lost

In an earlier post here you may have noticed that US Government Debt was stratospheric after WWII... possibly as high relative to GDP as now (although I don't think government stats were so thoroughly and slickly manipulated then... my bet is that today's sad financial state is hyperspun-to-the-good and in actuality is far worse than the financial house of America after the biggest money-draining war of all time, to date.)

Well the point of this isn't just that history repeats, it's 1) the stark observation by the writer that the Fed is a very big liar, and 2) the Fed has not always been and does not have to be beholden to the New York Banksters (hope?).

As usual, the baddest of the bad actors reside in the drained swamp known as DC.   I keep saying, we need to put an end to politics as a career if we want to uphold and honor our Constitution.

RIP Automobiles, Hold the Dinosaur Juice

An interesting article appeared in FT.com -- "Young Americans Turn Away from Driving" that supports something I've been thinking for a long time - cars as we've known them are done.  I would not be a buyer of automotive stocks.  In fact, they might make an interesting long-term short.   This position is immediately relevant to the western world, and although developing countries like China, Brazil, India may well have pretty strong auto markets for some time, they are just echoes of the automotive industrial boom.

Here's why cars as we've known them are doomed.

Demographics.  Baby Boomers becoming Aging Droolers reduce and eventually stop driving... plus everyone knows that older folks just don't buy new cars after a point... the old jalopy is just fine.  Even more importantly, the trends in X'ers and Millennials to live in cities, take public transportation, ride bikes, walk and actually SHARE THINGS like cars are killing auto demand.

There is an intriguing psychographic aspect to the falling demand for cars by younger people.  Cars don't have universal cachet the way they used to.  Kids that grew up on the internet, video games and smart phones have a different life focus and orientation than older people who grew up with land lines and the daily admonition from Mom to "go play outside".  Your station in life is no longer signaled by the wheels you have.  In fact it's kind of going in reverse... who hasn't had a chuckle at the some of the auto customizations originating in public housing?  No, having the latest iToy is far more important and relevant.  Cars are a pain in the butt.  They are expensive, costly to drive, costly to insure, they break down and lose value as they age, they are hard and/or costly to park, they get you courtesy notices and fines from your friendly local government, and they tend to embed dumb old technology.  If I need one, I'll borrow it.

If you are an auto maker, the outlook is dismal.  I don't care how big ZipCar gets, it won't replace demand generated by the suburban two-cars-in-every-garage paradigm.

Energy costs.  If you believe energy costs will rise long-term, it's obvious driving will be impacted. Will LNG come to the rescue?  Maybe.  But until something we see a viable substitute for the incredible portability and efficiency of fossil fuels, energy prices aren't likely to help increase demand for cars.

I guess this is the point where we might indulge in nostalgia for the passing of an era.  Go ahead, sit in your shiny baby, smell the leather.  Crank it and gun it... ahh the sound.  Turn on that AM radio and hear those fine tunes... fondly remember everywhere you've gone and everything you've done in your cars (or not)...   OK, time to go.

Clusterville - another trip to the abyss

I wrote the tune underneath the wordcloud in May 2008 ... it seemed we were on the edge of an economic abyss (we were).

Now in 2012 it feels like we're back at the edge of the abyss, only it's much bigger than last time.

All the same themes, just bigger, and worse--

State control over ever-increasing span of business and private life, making it harder and harder to get new economic growth underway.  Biggest growth industry in USA?  Department of Homeland Security!!!  LETTING GOVERNMENT DISMANTLE FREEDOM IS A HORRIBLE IDEA!

Kleptocracy and Crony Capitalism comprising banksters, politicians and their unelected apparatchiks.  If you are a saver, you have been and are continuing to be robbed by those in charge.  POLITICS SHOULD NOT BE A PAID CAREER!

Ever expending Central Bank balance sheets based on exactly what collateral? Cal it what it is - MONEY PRINTING!  GIVING MONOPOLY POWER OVER MONEY TO CENTRAL BANKS IS INSANE!

Now entering Clusterville... buckle up.

The Federal Debt vs. The Debtors in Chief

Michael Jackson's Black or White?  How about Red or Blue?  Now say, who really knew/knows how to run up that national credit card?  Of course, we are going to pay it all back...

It is staggering to think that this country had enough productive force to diminish its debt despite the Viet Nam war and Johnson's Great Society.   Now an extra $ of government debt doesn't even buy a $ of GDP.

Baby Boomers can fairly be pointed out as responsible for most of the great upswing... does anyone care anymore?  Are we all aiming to be wards of the nanny State?  Shame on us.