Tuesday, July 31, 2012

FAIL! Revisited - IPO Class of 2011-12 mini reunion




Way, way back on June 1 of this year I took a look at some of the high profile tech IPOs of 2011 and 2012 and I offered up a pretty dour view of the immediate future for these hype great investments.   So, two months later, I'm going to have a quick Class Reunion and see how all the IPO graduates have faired....

Presented in the same order, with updated stock charts....

1. Zynga, My Favorite Game!

Look out below!

Here's what I said 6/1:  Opened at 11, a real Christmas gift!  Woops, touching 6 now... don't bother bottom fishing until around 4.  Isn't StockVille such a neat game to play?!

Bottom fishers, you now have a yellow caution light to proceed depending on your level of self-loathing.


2. Get Your Daily Deal - Rotten Fish on GroupOff!

Back on 6/1 GRPN was trading a bit under 10. I said wait for 5.  We are getting there....


3. HELP! I've been YELP'd!


Back on 6/1 YELP was looking at 16 after opening at 22.  Nice levitation since then, but too early to get giddy about upside.  Needs more time wallowing at lower levels.  

4. FaceJuke!  The Mother of all Bogus IPOs!  Long Live the Zuck!


FB touched $45 on opening day. On 6/1 I said way to early to even seriously watch it.  Mr. Market seems to agree.  Let's see if the fall offrom disgrace can stop at $16.  

And finally, the winner.... the CHAMPION!!!!

5. LNKD -  like my 81 year old pops-in-law says, "I'm on the "LINKIN" (no it doesn't do anything for him).  Hotrod Lincoln?  Or a Ford with a fake badge?



On 6/1 I said watch out because LNKD could be "the first commercially viable social network, OMG!!!"  It was actually UP over it's opening day.  I said it was "in the pool of indecision" and it's still there, hovering around its opening price.  I still think it needs to spend some time underwater but LNKD remains the champ in this IPO group... it has legitimate earnings prospects. 


The next few months could be pretty unkind to this whole group.  The low-volume manipulated rising market is very very tired and everyone seems to be focused on Central Bank moves rather than profits and prospects for more.  Main Street is tired too.  The economy is just not in great shape, it's getting harder to fake with government statistics.   This IPO class has its work cut out for it.  At least they have big cash cushions to weather economic storms and headwinds.   I think they're going to need it.


Your Faithful Curmudgeon