Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Have We Missed the Start of World War III?

Possibly.

Economic (Federal Reserve) policy in the USA is getting tagged, not entirely unfairly, for food riots in developing countries.

Iran's nuclear program has reportedly been set back years.  Not by a military operation, but a computer virus.

The most strategic "choke points" in the developed world are no longer ports, bridges, roads and factories but financial and energy distribution systems, which in turn rely on the global information network.

The global debt bubble has already caused one country (Iceland) to go bankrupt.  More will follow despite the increasingly desperate and disingenuous tactics to pay old debt with greater sums of new debt.  The Swiss are being punished for prudence, with the value of the Swiss Franc skyrocketing as the rest of the developed world, led by the USA, tries to debase its currencies to "stay competitive".   This race to the bottom can lead to an 'everyman for himself' chaos.  Nations and peoples may well find themselves "owned" by others in return for "bailouts".... no shots fired.

Why drop bombs and fire guns if you can disrupt or take control of information networks and the complex systems, especially financial, riding on top of them?   Both nation states and rogue actors could plausibly do so.

Consider the possibility that World War III will be entirely different from the conflicts that preceded it.  The primary arenas of conflict could well be economics-based and information-control based.   Military action may become a secondary arena, more for consolidation of control than assault.  Consider that alliances may shift throughout the conflict, unlike the rigid state-based alliances of the past.  Indeed, chaos and uncertainty may be signature calling cards of a lengthy conflict.

All biological systems adapt.  War has proven to be adaptible throughout human history.  No war has been exactly the same as it's predecessor.   Enough has changed in the fabric of life since WW II that we should not be surprised to wake up to a very different kind of war.  Stay awake, my friends.

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