Let's face it, the investment bankers saw the approaching implosion of financial markets as we know them, and put as much perfume on these pigs as has ever been done to arrange a marriage with
Let us just look at a few stock charts, shall we? We'll save the WINNER for last because it's good to finish on an up-note, right?
1. Zynga, My Favorite Game!
Opened at 11, a real Christmas gift! Woops, touching 6 now... don't bother bottom fishing until around 4. Isn't StockVille such a neat game to play?!
2. Get Your Daily Deal - Rotten Fish on GroupOff!
GRPN, the ULTIMATE BUSINESS MODEL! Take an old concept, coupons, with no barrier to entry, and PISS OFF your RETAIL accounts while JADING your end-users! It's a sure-fire success! Oh, forgot to note the funny business in accounting... go Chicago! That tactic is always a great secret sauce for a BIG IPO! Opened at 28, now under 10. Makes Facebook look like such a Champ!! I know that special on Falling Knives is calling your name, but wait for the next 50% off deal on GRPN, it might go nearly to 5. If the company survives, it might actually make you some money, then!
3. HELP! I've been YELP'd!
I LIKE Yelp. It's actually a fun, worthwhile and potentially valuable community. I participate gladly. But, I didn't go near the IPO. Yelp still has to figure out how to make large $$ off of its assets. Sadly they do not seem to want grey-haired tech exec advice, they would rather whoop it up with a virtual pool party, taking a dive on NASDAQ. Guys and Gals - I'm still available :-) ... and I'll keep you laughing!
Opened at 22 (gee, their underwriters must have had an unusual fit of modesty!) now probing 16 with a lot of room to range down. If it can't hold 15-16, maybe 10? This is not such a bad IPO story. MOST tech IPOs are underwater six months after opening. Yelp may make it. I hope they do. But the stock just gets a 1-star review right now, I won't buy any until it's quite a bit lower, and then maybe it'll rate up to 3-stars.
4. FaceJuke! The Mother of all Bogus IPOs! Long Live the Zuck!
Oh those bad, bad underwriters. Hell, they just got caught doing what every tech IPO underwriter has done for decades. Stop your whining, dice-throwers! FaceBook is the most talked about boring thing in my lifetime. Yes, it can be useful and I suppose sometimes even heartwarming. And advertisers will be sure to pay exorbitant rates to get at really meaty micro-targeted behavior- and location-based goodness.
Never mind FB is a tool of the state police. If Google can do it, why not the Book? But I digress. Opened at a much ballyhooed $28 so that the mezzanine private equity investors of a year ago could get their guaranteed double, and F to YouGuys who buy the stock retail! Mwah hah hah!!! This pig has a long way to go to the find bottom of the PigSty. Too early to even seriously watch it, unless you like being zucked from behind.
And finally, the winner.... the CHAMPION!!!!
5. LNKD - like my 81 year old pops-in-law says, "I'm on the "LINKIN" (no it doesn't do anything for him). Hotrod Lincoln? Or a Ford with a fake badge?
Look carefully at this... yes, it's true, LNKD is actually UP over it's opening price! Maybe because its community is LOYAL and a good % actually PAY to use it? Plus advertising? Watch out, this could be a real business model. It might be the first commercially viable social network, OMG!!!
Don't get too excited just yet. The market can't make up its mind how much LNKD is worth. It will go down, maybe a bunch, before it goes up again. But at least it's in the pool of indecision instead of the drowning pool with its IPO classmates!
Moral to the story: Do not FOLLOW the smart money. If you can't ride with them, wait til they kill the innocent in their wake... if you are patient, you might be able to get some GRPN-sized opportunities. Happy crumb-hunting!
Your Faithful Curmudgeon
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