Sunday, July 28, 2013

Do Sports Signal Market Reversals?



A number of respected market observers say that the true, "internal" top of the Big Bull Market that started in 1981 occurred in 1998.  1998 also marked the end of the Chicago Bulls' hoops dynasty, one of the greatest ever witnessed in all of sports.  Their reversal down in 1999 was truly dramatic.  The market fibrillated until 2000 when the bubble popped, and its reversal was dramatic as well.

Now here we are in 2013.  My hometown San Francisco Giants have won two World Series' in the last three years.  This year, however, they are about as snakebit or bad a baseball team as you'll ever see and it's quite possible they'll finish the year with the worst MLB record.  Quite a dramatic reversal. Since the busted stock bubble that bottomed in 2002/3, the Federal Reserve has been on quite a campaign to pump up debt levels to levitate the market.  Especially since March 2009.  There are plenty of signs that this effort is losing effectiveness and is increasingly precarious. \

In the vein of past is prolog and history rhymes, make a mental note that the Giants' relatively short fling at the top of baseball has a certain poetic rhyme factor with the Federal Reserve's post-bubble bubble attempt at a bull market encore, that will appear to be a relatively brief historical footnote once it has turned.   The key reversal of the Giants' fortunes is in.   Will the market do the same?


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