Second update to my June 1 'Commencement Post" for the Tech IPO classes of 2011 and 2012. After two months, the career prospects for these recent 'grads' was still pretty dim overall... so I thought I'd see how they survived Trick or Treat, Dia de los Muertos and the Electile Dysfunction of 2012.... not pretty... do we need viagra for stocks or get started preparing some coffins? I'll let you be the judge.... "fair and balanced" LOL!
Presented in the same order, with updated charts....
1. Zynga, When are they going to do Stockville, featuring the E*Trade baby?
6/1: Opened at 11, a real Christmas gift! Woops, touching 6 now... don't bother bottom fishing until around 4. Isn't StockVille such a neat game to play?!
7/31: Bottom fishers, you now have a yellow caution light to proceed depending on your level of self-loathing.
4 was a good reference point, ZNGA gapped right past it to the 2s by 7/31. Dead since then. Self loathers got another reason to loathe themselves if they bit this summer. A bitter taste in the mouth indeed. Don't be looking for a big win here... either in their games OR the stock.
2. Get Your Daily Deal - Rotten StockFish!
7/31: Back on 6/1 GRPN was trading a bit under 10. I said wait for 5. We are getting there....
11/13: Yee-howdy, now THERE'S a discount. But compared to bankruptcy? Do you like remorse with your pain? This one could go all. the. way.
3. HELP! I've been YELP'd!
7/31: Back on 6/1 YELP was looking at 16 after opening at 22. Nice levitation since then, but too early to get giddy about upside. Needs more time wallowing at lower levels.
11/13: I am the Wallow-Rus! Koo Koo Katchoo! Here's a 5-star Round Trip! Let's meet up at '14' again, k? We can pretend to be Elite...
4. FaceJuke! The Mother of all Bogus IPOs! Long Live the Zuck!
7/31: FB touched $45 on opening day. On 6/1 I said way to early to even seriously watch it. Mr. Market seems to agree. Let's see if the fall offrom disgrace can stop at $16.
11/13: So far the Maginot line at 16 has held... but I'm not holding my breath. The crystal ball keeps seeing numbers between 10 and 15...
And finally, the winner.... the CHAMPION!!!!
5. LNKD - like my 81 year old pops-in-law says, "I'm on the "LINKIN" (no it doesn't do anything for him). Hotrod Lincoln? Or a Ford with a fake badge?
7/31: On 6/1 I said watch out because LNKD could be "the first commercially viable social network, OMG!!!" It was actually UP over it's opening day. I said it was "in the pool of indecision" and it's still there, hovering around its opening price. I still think it needs to spend some time underwater but LNKD remains the champ in this IPO group... it has legitimate earnings prospects.
11/13: LNKD was at around 102 on 7/31, and still close to 100. The LNKD "Pool of Indecision" is bigger than Olympic-sized! At least with LNKD, you have not already lost most of your investment. You may even have a gain. With next year's tax picture, you might want to pocket that and go buy yourself a double latte. If it drops much more here, it could roundtrip to 60. Oh, that's not very winner-like. My condolences to this graduating class.
Summary for the Graduates of 2011/12
7/31: The next few months could be pretty unkind to this whole group. The low-volume manipulated rising market is very very tired and everyone seems to be focused on Central Bank moves rather than profits and prospects for more. Main Street is tired too. The economy is just not in great shape, it's getting harder to fake with government statistics. This IPO class has its work cut out for it. At least they have big cash cushions to weather economic storms and headwinds. I think they're going to need it.
11/13: Yes, a cruel summer for the recent Grads. And a cold winter, too. Ned Stark was an optimist. Winter Has Come. And not just for these puny hype-rockets coming down with a thud. Everyone's invited.
Your Faithful Curmudgeon
No comments:
Post a Comment